Read your hand
Look at suit lengths, high cards and low escape cards. Keeping low cards can help you avoid winning dangerous tricks. Passing every low card can leave you forced to take penalties.
Watch the queen of spades
Until the queen appears, high spades can be dangerous. The risk also depends on your lower spades and the cards already played. No single passing choice is correct for every hand.
Notice a moon attempt
If one player keeps collecting penalties while controlling tricks, watch for a moon attempt. Taking a small penalty yourself can sometimes prevent the larger score change of a successful moon.